BetOnMarkets Daily Report

Morning Report: Aussie dollar hammered by bank downgrade threat

Dave Evans — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 08:36:22 +0000

Morning Report: 08.30 London

This morning, the Australian dollar is being hit hard after ratings agency Fitch placed four of its banks on credit watch negative. The AUD/ USD is down 0.91% with the AUD/ JPY off by a similar margin. The NZD/ USD is not far behind at -0.77%.

Away from the Antipodean currencies, the euro is the biggest faller as Greek debt negotiation stumble forward without resolution. The rhetoric was ratcheted up over the weekend over suggestions that Greek be forced to let the EU control its finances, an idea firmly rejected by Greece so far. It’s not the backdrop politicians were hoping for as we head into the EU economic summit today, to put it mildly.
The EUR/ USD is down 0.42% with the EUR/ GBP down by 0.10%.

The US dollar is generally enjoying a positive day with gold suffering as a consequence. The precious metal is down by around 0.67% on the day.

Coming up today:

It’s a relatively quiet day for the economic calendar with US Core PCE Price index and personal spending at 13.30 the main item of note.
This will no doubt be superseded by any headlines coming from the EU economic summit though.

Bet Idea:

The EUR/ GBP has been following a familiar pattern in 2012 of up days generally followed by down days. So far the balance has been such that the down days have been on average smaller than the up days. However with the pair trading just below resistance at 0.8400, today could be a good opportunity for a LOWER trade, especially if there are some headlines from the EU summit that fail to impress.

A good way to play this might be a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/ GBP closes below 0.8350 for a potential return of 209% in 1 days time (Tuesday Jan 31st).
You can find direct links to this trade idea here and here.

Summary:

Afternoon Report: Yen surged continues

Dave Evans — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:02:26 +0000

Afternoon Report: 18.00

This afternoon the Japanese yen has extended its two day surge, fuelled by worse than expected US economic data. The USD/ JPY is down 1.00%, its biggest single day drop for some time, with the AUD/ JPY not fair behind at -0.84%.

The dollar has been under pressure across the board with the NZD/ USD extending its recent bull run and gold rallying 0.87% today.

The euro has been having a fine day of it as well after a successful Italian bond auction

Summary:

Morning Report: Yen extends rally with dollar still under pressure

Dave Evans — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:44:50 +0000

Morning Report: 08.30 London

This morning, the yen is continuing its snap rebound after a sharp slump at the beginning of the week. The USD/ JPY is heading back towards the 77.00 region after pushing above 78.00 just two days ago.

Other yen pairs are following suit with the EUR/ JPY the weakest of the bunch, down 0.56% this morning. The AUD/ JPY is not far behind, down 0.50%.
This is adding further pressure on the dollar index which continues its slump ten day slump. The falls this morning are small, with mixed trends so far this morning. The EUR/ USD is down slightly while the NZD/ USD continues to advance, up 0.18%. With debt negotiations ongoing and the rhetoric stepping up at the World Economic Forum, there could still be room for some volatility on the euro today.

Coming up today:

Coming up today we have European M3 Money Supply at 09.00 with a slight increase expected.
ECB President Draghi speaks at 13.15.
US Advance GDP figures are released at 13.30 with relatively solid increase of 3% expected by analysts.

Bet Idea:

The USD/ CAD hit parity (1.0000) for the first time since the end of October. The pair has a habit of rebounding off key levels at the first time of asking so there could be room for upside here, especially with the dollar having been under so much pressure.

A good way to play this might be a HIGHER trade predicting that the USD/ CAD closes higher than 1.0050 in 3 days time could return 181% if successful.
You can find direct links to this trade idea here and here.

Summary:

Afternoon Report: Rally eases, but dollar still weak

Dave Evans — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 17:41:17 +0000

Afternoon Report: 17.30

Today’s bullish bias on stock markets has cut back a notch as we go into the European close, but not by much with the Dow Jones up by 0.11% and the FTSE 100 heading for a +1% close.

The dollar has clawed back some ground against most pairs, but still remains under pressure. The NZD/ USD has fallen back from the day’s highs, but is up 0.50% on the day, with the Canadian dollar strengthening as the day progressed, with the USD/ CAD down 0.44%.

Gold is similarly off the highs, but is still up 0.70% on today’s session.

The euro has lagged other currencies, but has still put in a decent showing, with the EUR/ USD up 0.25% on the day.

Summary:

Afternoon Report: Markets cheer after Fed’s helping hand.

Dave Evans — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 08:51:09 +0000

Afternoon Report: 08.30

Markets were on the back foot yesterday until the US Fed’s announcement that rates would stay low until 2014, with plans for a third round of quantitative easing. Stocks immediately rallied with the dollar plunging well into the close last night. The impact is still being felt with the dollar under pressure again this morning, though US stock market futures have eased back slightly.
Commodity currencies are seeing the biggest follow through so far today with the AUD/ USD up another 0.46%, the USD/ CAD down 0.32% and the NZD/ USD up another 0.60% in early trading.

The USD/ JPY is continuing to peel back from the highs after a big reversal yesterday. The pair is down 0.20% with only the AUD/ JPY extending gains from yesterday.

Gold rocketed higher yesterday on the back of the weak dollar, hitting $1700 for the first time since December. The precious metal has eased of 0.25% this morning though.

Coming up today:

It’s another fairly busy day today with the World Economic Forum continuing throughout the day.
We also have UK CBI realised sales at 11.00.
US durable goods and unemployment claims follow at 13.30 with new home sales at 15.00.

Bet Idea:

The NZD/ USD‘s recent rally has been exceptional, but is this a sign of strength or is the pair now over bought?
Unlike some pairs, the NZD/ USD has been more prone to extend a rally after a strong run than reverse it. This sets up a good trading opportunity.
There may be some pullbacks along the way, so a longer time frame might be best. A good way to play this might be a HIGHER trade predicting that the NZD/ USD closes above 0.8300 in 34 days time for a potential return of 159%.
You can find direct links to this trade idea here and here.

Summary:

Afternoon Report: Greek debt impasse troubles markets.

Dave Evans — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:57:17 +0000

Afternoon Report: 17.00

Greece has been centre stage throughout the day and weighing heavily on markets as a consequence. There are various parties involved including the IMF, ECB,European governments, banks and hedge funds. The crux of the argument comes down to a question of who is going to bear the losses. Right now private debt holders which include banks and hedge funds are being asked to take a larger hit than they expected, while other creditors are potentially being prioritised. The problem is that there has to be some pain somewhere sometime, but right now all parties appear to be steadfastly refusing for the burden to come down on them.
So the Greek debt problems that were expected to be solved last week, last month etc are still rolling on. It’s been enough to dent the euro’s rally, but judging by today’s reaction it appears that markets have slipped down the gears a bit rather than hitting full reverse.
The EUR/ USD is down 0.50%, but this is isolated weakness, with the NZD/ USD down 0.80%.

It’s certainly been a day for the dollar with the yen slipping further. The USD/ JPY extended the morning’s gains and is now up 0.60%.

We’ve still excitement to come though with the FOMC announcement and press conference due later.

Summary:

Morning Report: AUDJPY leads pairs to highs.

Dave Evans — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 08:22:46 +0000

Morning Report: 08.15 London

It’s a mixed bag out there this morning with the main theme being the continued weakness in the Japanese yen. This morning’s Bank of Japan monthly report didn’t help things, with the USD/ JPY advancing another 0.30% this morning.

The Australian dollar is the morning’s strongest currency after traders took heart from the morning’s inflation data. The AUD/ USD is up 0.33% with the AUD/ JPY up another 0.69%, capping an incredibly strong run since the 17th.

Stock market futures have a positive bias, especially the Nasdaq 100 futures which are up nearly 1% in early trading, hitting their highest levels since 2001. Last night tech giant Apple’s earnings came in higher than analysts estimates, pushing the share price to record levels on the back of iphone 4s sales. It cements what has been a solid January for the Nasdaq 100.

Coming up today:

We’ve an extremely bust day today starting with German Ifo business climate at 09.00 which is expected to improve slightly.
At 09.30 we have the release of the minutes from the last MPC meeting with preliminary GDP released at the same time. A drop of -0.1% is expected.
UK CBI industrial order expectations follow at 11.00.
The ECB could causes some excitement with president Draghi speaking at 13.15.
At 15.00 we have US pending new home sales.
Today’s main item of note is the FOMC statement released at 17.30. No change is expected but the press conference at 19.15 could cause some volatility in markets.
All day we have the World Economic Forum in Davos attended by central bankers and heads of state. There is potential for volatility if a few choice words are dropped or picked up by reporters.

Bet idea:

This morning the USD/ JPY is pushing up to the 80.00 level for the first time in 2012. As the chart below shows though, the pairs has often recently reversed following a big spike higher, especially in the vicinity of the 80.00 level.

A good way to play this might be a LOWER trade predicting that the USD/ JPY closes below 77.75 in 3 days time for a potential return of 106%.
You can find direct links to this trade idea here and here.

Summary:

Afternoon Report: Yen plunges, euro stable.

Dave Evans — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 18:07:54 +0000

Afternoon Report: 18.00

It’s been a rocky days trading today with better then expected European economic data (German PMI in particular) helping to buffer dour news from Japan and the IMF. The euro has steadied after earlier falls and is now up slightly against the dollar.

The IMF has hit the newswire headlines with a stark warning about the world economy, calling for world (and in particular European) governments to make decisive policy action now before it is too late.
The yen is suffering deeply with many pointing to Wall Street Journal’s gloomy prognosis on Japan’s economy which highlights a likely trade deficit for the first time since 1980. This is probably good news for the Bank of Japan as it takes the pressure off the yen again. As if a weight had been lifted, the USD/ JPY has shot up nearly 1% today as traders switch out of the yen.

The biggest gainer has been the GBP/ JPY which is up 1.16%, as traders reward the UK’s lower than expected borrowing numbers. The EUR/ JPY isn’t far behind though, up 0.98%, compounding a remarkable run over the last six sessions.

The EUR/ GBP is showing the pound’s relative strength though the pair is well off the lows of the day.

Stock markets are softer, with the Dow off by around 0.4%, as is gold.

Summary:

Morning Report: Stern test for euro

Dave Evans — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:40:23 +0000

Morning Report: 08.30 London

With the EUR/ USD closing last night above 1.3000 for the first time since the first proper trading day of 2012, today will represent a real test for the euro. We have a heavy economic calendar, a European finance minister meeting and Spain selling bonds to contend with. If the EUR/ USD can get through the day and still hold the 1.3000 at the close, it could be telling.

This morning there isn’t too much movement to speak of , but the euro is slipping back from the morning highs and the US dollar is gaining some traction.
Stock markets certainly have a ‘risk off’ feel to them with the S&P 500 futures down 0.51% and the FTSE 100 off by a similar margin so far this morning.

On currencies, this is impacting the AUD/ USD which is down 0.38% so far.

Coming up today:

We’ve an extremely busy day today with a series of European services and manufacturing data points released. Already French flash manufacturing has come in below estimates, with German data coming in better than expected. European PMI data is released at 09.00.
Throughout the day we have the economic meeting of European finance ministers with the Spanish bond auction also taking place.
UK public sector net debt figures are released at 09.30 with 12.4bn the figure expected.
Canadian retail sales are released at 13.30.
Late in the evening at 20.00, BOE governor King is speaking.
Also keep a wary eye on the US company earnings which could hit the US and markets in general. Before the open of US stock markets we have earnings from giants such as McDonald’s with Apple releasing their figures after the bell.

Bet Idea:

The EUR/ GBP has seen some big moves of late, but quite often these big moves are reversed within a day or two, especially to the downside.

With Monday’s rally erasing most of Friday’s losses, now could be a good time for a LOWER trade on the pair. A good way to play this might be a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/ GBP closes below 0.8350 in 1 day’s time for a potential return of 140%.
You can find direct links to this trade idea here and here.

Summary:

Afternoon Report: Euro hits 1.3000 despite Greek hit

Dave Evans — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 18:35:15 +0000

Afternoon Report: 18.30

This afternoon there was more apparent bad news for Greece with the Eurozone finance ministers making it clear that the Hellenic nation can expect no further bailout funds even if the economy deteriorates further. Either this news had already been priced in or the euro has developed Teflon coating as the EUR/ USD surged 0.63% today with similar moves against other pairs. The EUR/ GBP has shown particular strength, rallying 0.63% and testing last week’s highs.

The euro has outpaced other dollar pairs including the NZD/ USD which has slipped some way from the day’s highs to trade at +0.36% currently.

It’s not been a uniformly bullish day though with US stock markets slipping back. The Dow Jones is off by 0.27%.

Gold has enjoyed the dollar’s weakness, rallying 0.75% on the day.

Summary: